동식물위생연구 국제공인연구실 WOAH reference lab 브루셀라병연구실
동식물위생연구에 대한 모든 정보가 있습니다.
WOAH 77차 총회에서 아·태 지역 최초로 브루셀라병 표준실험실로 인정받음(2009년 5월)
이진주 수의연구사
[농림축산검역본부]
실험실-세균질병과
[농림축산검역본부]
Time series analysis of human and bovine brucellosis in South Korea from 2005 to 2010(2013-05-16) | |||||
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담당부서 | 동식물위생연구부 | 작성자 | Moon Her | 0 | 2013-05-16 |
Lee HS, Her M, Levine M, Moore GE Prev Vet Med. 2013,110(2), 190-197 AbstractBrucellosis is considered to be one of the most important zoonotic diseases in the world, affecting underdeveloped and developing countries. The primary purpose of brucellosis control is to prevent the spread of disease from animals (typically ruminants) to humans. The main objective of this study was to retrospectively develop an appropriate time series model for cattle-to-human transmission in South Korea using data from independent national surveillance systems. Monthly case counts for cattle and people as well as national population data were available for 2005-2010. The temporal relationship was evaluated using an autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous input (ARIMAX) model [notated as ARIMA(p, d, q)-AR(p)] and a negative binomial regression (NBR) model. Human incidence rate was highly correlated to cattle incidence rate in the same month and the previous month (both r=0.82). In the final models, ARIMA (0, 1, 1)-AR (0, 1) was determined as the best fit with 191.5% error in the validation phase, whereas the best NBR model including lags (0, 1 months) for the cattle incidence rate yielded a 131.9% error in the validation phase. Error (MAPE) rates were high due to small absolute human case numbers (typically less than 10 per month in the validation phase). The NBR model however was able to demonstrate a marked reduction in human case immediately following a hypothetical marked reduction in cattle cases, and may be better for public health decision making.
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